Recent polling data reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris’ brief surge following President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside from the 2024 race has already begun to lose steam. According to a new poll conducted by the Napolitan Institute and released this past Friday, former President Donald Trump has regained his lead, reminiscent of the advantage he held over Biden before the Democratic Party rallied behind Harris.
The Napolitan News survey, which polled 3,000 likely voters, shows Trump leading Harris by a slim margin of 46% to 45%. When including undecided voters who lean toward one candidate, Trump’s lead extends to 49% compared to Harris’ 47%. Just a week ago, the two candidates were neck-and-neck, each holding 49% of the likely voter share. These latest figures indicate that the initial enthusiasm surrounding Harris’ candidacy may be waning.
“These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over. However, the core dynamics of the race remain unchanged. Love him or hate him, voters know what they think of Donald Trump. At this point in time, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown. That means events like the upcoming Democratic convention and presidential debates could have a bigger impact than usual,” the polling organization reported.
Despite Trump’s current lead, the race remains incredibly close and unpredictable. Analysts have pointed out that in the last two presidential elections, Trump has consistently outperformed his polling numbers, a trend that could spell trouble for the Democrats if it continues.
“Trump voters are slightly more likely to vote than Harris supporters. So, the former president does a bit better with a lower turnout. What’s especially amazing about this close race is that it’s quite plausible to envision either party winning a trifecta: control of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House. The most important race to determine Senate control is in Montana. The latest Napolitan News survey there shows Democrat Jon Tester with a narrow lead but the state’s political gravity is likely to boost Republican Tim Sheehy,” the report continued.
A report by Just the News highlighted the significance of the polling data, noting that voters appear to be “catapulting Trump to lead and ending Harris surge.” The report emphasized that Harris had a narrow lead over Trump, 44% to 43%, in the same survey just a week prior, and even enjoyed a five-point lead at the start of the month. However, the tides have shifted, as indicated by Napolitan Institute pollster Scott Rasmussen: “These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over.”
Amid these polling developments, Trump is shoring up his 2024 campaign team with some familiar faces from his successful 2016 run. Reports from Thursday indicate that Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s former campaign manager-turned-top adviser, is returning to the fold. CNN reported that Lewandowski will not replace current campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, who will continue their roles. Instead, Lewandowski will focus on navigating the new political terrain now that Harris has become the Democratic nominee.
To further strengthen Trump’s campaign, Taylor Budowich, a trusted ally who has led the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA, Inc., for the past two years, has been added as a senior adviser. Budowich’s extensive experience is expected to play a crucial role as the campaign heads into its final stretch.
“As we head into the home stretch of this election, we are continuing to add to our impressive campaign team,” Wiles and LaCivita said in a statement to CNN. “Corey Lewandowski, Taylor Budowich, Alex Pfeiffer, Alex Bruesewitz, and Tim Murtaugh are all veterans of prior Trump campaigns and their unmatched experience will help President Trump prosecute the case against Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, the most radical ticket in American history.”
Wiles and LaCivita have been at the helm of Trump’s campaign for much of the past two years, wielding significant influence over both the campaign’s strategy and the broader Republican Party’s approach to securing a Trump victory in 2024. Wiles, a seasoned adviser whose strategic prowess was instrumental in Trump’s 2016 Florida win, has been a key player in shaping the direction of the campaign. Her previous success in reviving Ron DeSantis’ gubernatorial campaign further cements her reputation as a formidable force in Republican politics.
As the 2024 election draws nearer, all eyes will be on how these developments impact the dynamics of the race. The coming months, particularly the Democratic convention and the presidential debates, could prove decisive in what is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched elections in recent history.
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