Hezbollah is struggling after a series of devastating strikes by Israel, marking a significant shift in the conflict between the two. On October 4, a pre-dawn Israeli airstrike leveled several buildings near Beirut, Lebanon, targeting Hashem Safieddine, the cousin and likely successor to Hezbollah’s founder, Hassan Nasrallah. Safieddine was meeting with what remains of Hezbollah’s leadership at the time. The attack followed another recent Israeli strike that killed Nasrallah. It’s unclear if anyone survived the latest hit.
“Israel is demonstrating what almost absolute intelligence understanding of another organization looks like,” said Jon Molik, an active U.S. intelligence officer. Molik emphasized how Hezbollah is reeling from these blows, and it’s becoming clear that they may not be able to recover. “It’s true to say that at times if you just cut off the head of an organization, if the organization is strong enough, another person can find his way into the leadership position. This is not the case for Hezbollah right now.”
Adding to the pressure, Israeli ground forces have entered southern Lebanon. According to Molik, Israel’s position is much stronger this time around compared to previous incursions. “There are indirect fire attacks, and [Hezbollah fighters are] throwing some squad-level elements at the Israelis. But, you know, they just don’t have a central command from Beirut right now.”
⭕️ 24hr Operational Recap in Southern Lebanon:
During precise intelligence-based raids, IDF troops discovered rocket launcher munitions, anti-tank missiles and rockets inside a residential home.
Additionally, dozens of weapons—aimed at Israeli territory—were left behind in… pic.twitter.com/yOYSyICz2l
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 4, 2024
Unlike the densely populated and tightly controlled Gaza Strip, where Israel has fought urban warfare with Hamas, southern Lebanon presents a different challenge. The region is far less populated, with open fields making it easier for Israel to carry out operations. Israel’s main goal is to push Hezbollah back to the Litani River, roughly 20 miles from Israel’s northern border. If they succeed, most of Hezbollah’s rockets and artillery would be rendered ineffective.
Molik noted that Israel isn’t interested in seizing land in this operation. “This operation in Israel is different. It’s not about seizing territory. It’s about literally taking care of, eliminating – whatever the language you want to use – every single munition point and every single soldier.”
By taking a methodical approach, Israel aims to remove Hezbollah’s presence completely from southern Lebanon, ensuring that its northern towns are no longer under rocket threat. This approach is summed up in the phrase “slow is smooth, and smooth is fast,” reflecting Israel’s commitment to thoroughness over speed.
The potential long-term effect? Hezbollah could take years to recover, if it can at all. Israel might not allow Hezbollah to reestablish itself as it has in the past. If successful, this could also pave the way for Lebanon’s official military to regain control of the region, reducing the risk of another Iranian-backed group moving in.
While Hezbollah has been a significant force in the region for decades, recent events suggest their influence may be fading. For Israel, the opportunity to push them back and maintain the upper hand has never been clearer. Molik concluded that this is a pivotal moment, and how Israel handles the aftermath could shape the future of Lebanon’s southern region for years to come.
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