Will Mongolia Arrest Putin? Experts Doubt It!

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Mongolia next week, marking his first trip to the nation in a decade. The visit comes despite an active arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March 2023. The warrant accuses Putin of the unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

While Mongolia, as a signatory of the Rome Statute—the treaty that established the ICC—is technically obligated to arrest Putin upon his arrival, experts believe that this is unlikely to happen. “Mongolia is never going to arrest him, of course,” said Talita Dias, a research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law, and Armed Conflict at Oxford University.

Strategic Visit Amidst Legal Controversy

Putin’s visit to Mongolia comes at the invitation of Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh. The Kremlin has stated that Putin is visiting to participate in events marking the 85th anniversary of the Soviet and Mongolian armed forces’ joint victory over Japanese forces at the Khalkhin Gol River. This event holds historical significance for both nations, reinforcing their long-standing alliance.

However, the timing of the visit is controversial due to the ICC’s arrest warrant. The warrant, which accuses Putin of war crimes related to the forced deportation of children, has made international headlines. Yet, despite Mongolia’s legal obligation to arrest individuals with an ICC warrant, experts believe the country will not detain the Russian leader. The Kremlin seems unfazed by this, with Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stating that Moscow has “no worries” about the upcoming trip, citing the “wonderful dialogue” between Russia and Mongolia.

The ICC’s Limitations

The ICC, established to prosecute individuals for international crimes such as genocide and war crimes, faces a significant challenge when it comes to enforcement. Unlike national courts, the ICC does not have its own police force to carry out arrests, relying instead on member states to enforce its rulings. This creates a complex situation where political considerations often influence the actions of member countries.

In the past, other ICC member states have also refrained from arresting leaders with active warrants. In 2015, South Africa faced criticism from the ICC for not arresting Sudan’s then-president Omar al-Bashir during his visit. Dias noted that in al-Bashir’s case, the UN Security Council became involved, which heightened the situation. However, in Putin’s case, there is an added layer of complexity due to Russia’s status as a permanent member of the Security Council.

What’s at Stake for Mongolia?

Mongolia’s decision on whether to arrest Putin could have legal and diplomatic consequences. Dias suggested that while Mongolia might be found in breach of the Rome Statute if it fails to detain Putin, the repercussions would likely be limited. “There will be legal proceedings, probably at the ICC,” she said. “Maybe some countries will sanction Mongolia for that, and then that’s it.”

The relationship between Russia and Mongolia is likely a significant factor in how this situation will play out. Historically, Mongolia has maintained close ties with Russia, and the two nations have a shared interest in regional stability. The likelihood of Mongolia disrupting this relationship by arresting Putin seems minimal.

Moreover, Putin’s visit to Mongolia could be viewed as a statement of defiance against the ICC and its warrant. It demonstrates that despite international legal pressures, Russia is confident in its diplomatic relationships with certain nations, particularly those with shared historical and strategic interests.

A Precedent for Future Visits?

This visit raises important questions about the effectiveness of the ICC’s arrest warrants and the challenges the court faces in enforcing international law against powerful leaders. If Mongolia does not arrest Putin, it may set a precedent for other countries, particularly those with close ties to Russia or those wary of the ICC’s influence.

Already, countries like Hungary and Armenia, both ICC members, have assured Putin that he would not be arrested on their soil. This highlights the limitations of international law when it comes into conflict with national interests and realpolitik.

As the world watches, Putin’s visit to Mongolia will be a test of the ICC’s authority and the strength of international law. It will also underscore the complex balance that nations must navigate between upholding legal obligations and maintaining strategic alliances.

Dias summed up the situation succinctly: “I’m curious to see what will happen.”