In a surprising turn of events, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is on track to secure a significant victory in the state election of Thuringia. This result would mark the first time a far-right party has won a regional election in Germany since World War II, highlighting a dramatic shift in the political landscape of the country.
With exit polls indicating a potential 33.5% of the vote for AfD, the party’s rise in popularity is evident. This is a significant jump from the 23.4% they secured in the 2019 election. The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) trails behind at 24.5%, while the newly formed populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), has captured 14.5% of the vote, positioning them as a rising force in German politics.
Despite this apparent victory, forming a government may prove challenging for AfD. All major parties, including the CDU and BSW, have firmly stated that they will not enter into a coalition with AfD, labeling the party as extremist and anti-democratic. This leaves AfD in a precarious position, despite their electoral success.
Björn Höcke, AfD’s top candidate in Thuringia, celebrated the results as a “historic victory” and expressed “great, great, great pride and satisfaction.” He warned that excluding AfD from the government would not be “good for the state” and emphasized that anyone seeking stability in Thuringia would need to “integrate the AfD.”
Höcke’s controversial past, including a conviction for using Nazi slogans, continues to cast a shadow over his political career. Despite this, his appeal to a segment of the electorate seems stronger than ever, as evidenced by AfD’s growing support in Thuringia.
Nationally, the election results are a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition. The Social Democrats, Scholz’s party, managed to stay above the 5% threshold in both Thuringia and Saxony, ensuring their presence in the state parliaments. However, Scholz’s coalition partners, the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats, are struggling, with the Greens losing their seats in Thuringia entirely.
Alice Weidel, a national co-leader of AfD, described the election outcome as a “requiem” for Scholz’s coalition, signaling a potential shift in Germany’s political direction. Scholz himself acknowledged the gravity of the situation, calling the results “worrying” and asserting that “the AfD is damaging Germany” by weakening the economy, dividing society, and tarnishing the country’s reputation.
The growing influence of AfD, particularly in the formerly communist East Germany, where the party is strongest, has raised alarms among many, including Holocaust survivor Charlotte Knobloch. She expressed concern that the country is at risk of becoming “more unstable, colder and poorer, less safe and less worth living in.”
While the AfD’s win in Thuringia is significant, the party’s path to actual governance remains unclear. The CDU’s national general secretary, Carsten Linnemann, reiterated that there would be no coalition with AfD, a stance echoed by other major parties. This resistance to collaboration with AfD underscores the party’s continued isolation despite its electoral gains.
Adding to the political complexity is the emergence of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which garnered impressive support for a party founded just eight months ago. Wagenknecht has made it clear that BSW will not work with AfD, instead aiming to form “a good government” with the CDU. The success of BSW, combined with the struggles of Scholz’s coalition partners, indicates a reshuffling of Germany’s political landscape.
As Germany prepares for its next national election in a little over a year, the outcome in Thuringia serves as a stark reminder of the challenges ahead. Another regional election in Brandenburg is scheduled for later this month, where Scholz’s party will once again be put to the test. The rise of far-right and populist parties, coupled with the declining fortunes of traditional powerhouses, suggests that Germany’s political future is anything but certain.
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